betcalc365
.com
18+
← All glossary terms
StrategyGlossary

Variance

Also known as: Standard deviation

The natural spread of outcomes around the expected value of a bet or strategy. Even a +EV strategy can lose for hundreds of bets in a row due to variance. The longer the timeframe, the closer realised results converge to expectation — but "long run" can be thousands of bets, not dozens. Confusing variance with edge (or lack of edge) is the most common reason punters quit profitable strategies.

Related terms

Last updated: ·Spot an error? Tell us