StrategyGlossary
Variance
Also known as: Standard deviation
The natural spread of outcomes around the expected value of a bet or strategy. Even a +EV strategy can lose for hundreds of bets in a row due to variance. The longer the timeframe, the closer realised results converge to expectation — but "long run" can be thousands of bets, not dozens. Confusing variance with edge (or lack of edge) is the most common reason punters quit profitable strategies.