Pricing & mathsGlossary
Expected value
Also known as: EV
The average outcome of a bet if it were placed many times. Calculated as (win probability × profit) − (loss probability × stake). Positive EV bets win money in the long run; negative EV bets lose. All bookmaker-priced bets have negative EV by construction (because of overround) — finding +EV bets means identifying prices above their true probability.