Win + clean sheet: the win-to-nil builder
Combining a team to win with that team keeping a clean sheet is just win to nil built by hand — and a textbook case of strong positive correlation. A large share of wins are wins to nil: shut the opponent out and a single goal seals all three points. Multiply the two prices together and you will badly overstate what the combination should pay; the fair price is much shorter.
Bet Builder Engine
betcalc365.com/bet-builder-calculatorWhy your bet builder isn’t the legs multiplied
Legs in the same match move together — a team winning, scoring over 2.5 and both teams scoring are correlated, so the true price is lower than multiplying the odds suggests. This tool models that correlation, shows the fair odds, and splits the gap to the bookmaker’s price into correlation versus margin.
Estimate, not a guarantee. Correlations are modelled priors; de-vig uses market-type margin estimates. A transparency tool, not a tip.
Enter the match’s main prices. With the 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 lines the tool fits a match model (expected goals) and prices your builder exactly, instead of the correlation matrix.
Why your odds differ from 4.50
Multiplying the legs gives 4.50. Our model prices the builder at 3.43 because the legs are positively correlated (+53% joint-probability impact) and each leg already carries the bookmaker’s margin. The bookmaker’s price is 3.60, which is 5.1% longer than our fair estimate.
Correlation between your legs
- Home Win + Home Clean Sheetρ +0.40
Home wins are frequently clean sheets (win to nil), a strong positive link.
Correlation map
- 1Home Win
- 2Home Clean Sheet
The gap between the headline price and the fair price is the bookmaker’s margin in a form most punters never see. Learn the foundations in expected value and overround.
Your bet builder
- Correlation impact
- +53%
- Implied SGP margin
- −5.1%
- Avg leg margin stripped
- 5.8%
Why home win and home clean sheet are correlated
Home wins are frequently clean sheets (win to nil), a strong positive link. In our structural model the link is strong positive (ρ = 0.40). Because the legs tend to land together, the true probability of the builder is higher than multiplying the two prices implies — so the fair odds are shorter than the naive product. Bookmakers price this in; the question is whether they have priced it fairly or taken extra margin on top.
A worked example
Take home win at 1.80 and home clean sheet at 2.50 — the prices pre-loaded above. Multiplied together they suggest 4.50. Our engine de-vigs each leg, fits a match model to the example match odds in the advanced panel, and prices the joint outcome exactly: fair odds of 3.43, about 53% more likely than independence assumes. (The fitted model expects roughly 1.6–1.0 goals in this example match.) Against an example bookmaker quote of 3.60, the calculator shows the implied margin and expected value instantly — replace any number with your own match's prices and it reprices live.
Check the price, not the story
Every leg you are quoted already contains margin, and the builder price layers more on top — that, not the correlation, is where value quietly disappears. For the full derivation of how this engine prices a builder, read how we price a bet builder. If the mechanics are new to you, start with our cornerstone guide on what the overround does to your price and the expected value glossary entry. Then judge any win + clean sheet (win to nil) quote with the calculator: value, fair, or below fair.
More bet builder combinations
- Anytime Scorer + Win — Striker to score anytime plus the team win — the most-built bet builder in football.
- Anytime Scorer + Over 2.5 Goals — A named goalscorer means goals are flowing.
- Anytime Scorer + BTTS — Anytime scorer and both teams to score are only mildly correlated — the scorer covers one side, BTTS needs both.
- Bet Builder Calculator — build any 2–10 leg combination with correlation-aware fair odds and EV.