2026 PGA Championship Preview: Scheffler Defends as Aronimink Returns to the Major Stage

The 108th PGA Championship gets underway on Thursday 14 May at Aronimink Golf Club, the Donald Ross design just outside Philadelphia hosting a major championship for the first time since Gary Player lifted the Wanamaker Trophy in 1962. Sixty-four years on, the field is led by the same man who has led every field for the better part of two seasons: world number one Scottie Scheffler, defending the title he won by five shots at Quail Hollow last May.

What follows is a guide to the favourites, the course, the storylines, and — for the punters among you — the betting angles that matter most at a tournament where ties, finishing markets and dead heat rules will shape returns far more than most bettors realise.

Aronimink Returns to the Major Stage

Aronimink is a quietly classical track. Par 70, 7,394 yards. A 1928 Donald Ross design that has been meticulously restored over the last decade to reclaim the architect's original lines. It hosted the 1962 PGA, the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National (Justin Rose won the first of those), and the 2018 BMW Championship, which Keegan Bradley took home with Tommy Fleetwood's twin 62s still standing as the course record.

This is the first time it has welcomed a major in more than six decades. The greens will be firm, fast and small. The rough is penal where it needs to be. The par 4s are long enough that the short-iron specialists will earn their week. Players who have studied the property — Fleetwood, Rose, Schauffele, McIlroy (T5 in 2018) — bring memory advantages that should not be discounted.

Scheffler the Heavy Favourite to Defend

Scottie Scheffler arrives at Aronimink at roughly 9/2 with most bookmakers. He has won four of the last 17 majors and three of the last nine, and his five-shot win at Quail Hollow last May over Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau and Davis Riley was one of the most dominant major performances of recent memory.

His current form reads strangely for a man so short in the market. Solo second at the Masters to McIlroy. Solo second at the RBC Heritage to Matt Fitzpatrick. Solo second at the Cadillac Championship to Cameron Young. Three runners-up in a row — the first PGA Tour player to do that since 2014. The ball-striking remains the best in the world. The putter, occasionally, costs him a tournament.

Only Tiger Woods (twice) and Brooks Koepka have ever successfully defended a PGA Championship. Scheffler is genuinely capable of becoming the third.

McIlroy Hunting Major Number Seven

Rory McIlroy is the 8/1 second favourite, and his storyline somehow keeps building rather than fading. After completing the career grand slam at Augusta last spring, he successfully defended his green jacket in April — only the fourth player ever to win back-to-back Masters. He arrives in Pennsylvania hunting major number seven and the chance to take three of the last four going back to early 2025.

The driving remains the best on tour. The approach play is inside the top ten for the season. The putter has been the wobble, and at Quail Hollow at last week's Truist Championship, the all-round game looked patchy. None of that should matter at Aronimink. The course suits him on paper as well as any track on tour, and a rival's caddie was quoted earlier this week calling the layout "absolutely perfect for Rory's game." Believe him.

The Chasing Pack: Young, Fitzpatrick, Rahm, DeChambeau

Behind the big two sits the most volatile chasing pack of the season.

Cameron Young (12/1) is the form player of 2026. Two wins already — the Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship — plus a T3 at the Masters from the final pairing with McIlroy. He ranks second on tour in strokes gained: total this year, trailing only Scheffler. A T3 on debut at the 2022 PGA tells you he is built for this stage. He is the most credible first-time major winner in the field.

Jon Rahm (15/1) has the game for Aronimink — a shot-maker's course rewarding right-to-left flight — but arrives carrying off-course noise around LIV's direction and his contractual position. Distractions show up in major weeks more than anywhere else.

Matt Fitzpatrick (22/1) is the value story most punters are sleeping on. Three wins from his last five starts (Valspar, RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic). Runner-up at the Players. Top of the tour in strokes gained tee-to-green for the season. The 2022 US Open champion has never threatened at this major — which feels less like a red flag than an overdue correction.

Bryson DeChambeau (18/1) and Xander Schauffele (16/1) round out the meaningful pre-tournament conversation. DeChambeau missed the Masters cut and withdrew from LIV Mexico City with wrist trouble in April. Schauffele was T3 here at the 2018 BMW and won this trophy in 2024.

The Subplots: Spieth's Grand Slam, Fleetwood's Course Record

Jordan Spieth's career grand slam bid lives on. He has now had nine years of being asked about it. The ball-striking has been off in 2026; the putter has shown signs of waking up. At 60/1 he is the kind of price you take only if the romance gets you.

Tommy Fleetwood holds the Aronimink course record and is in good form (T5 last week at the Truist) and is still chasing his first major win. At 25/1 he is a serious shout. Justin Rose, a previous winner here, sits around 45/1 — the type of veteran value major championship weeks occasionally reward.

Course Setup: What Aronimink Will Reward

Modern Aronimink — restored by Gil Hanse — is a thinking person's golf course. The fairways are wider than at a typical PGA Championship venue, which means driving accuracy matters fractionally less than usual. The greens, by contrast, are small, firm, fast and crowned in the classic Ross style. That puts an enormous premium on approach play and on holding lines from the rough.

Putting will matter more here than at most majors. Players who reliably convert from eight to fifteen feet — Fitzpatrick, Spieth on his day, Russell Henley, Sam Burns — get a quiet bump. The par 3s are long and varied. The closing stretch is brutal. Whichever scoring stat you favour, the data points the same way: this week is won by the strongest approach player who can also hole something meaningful on Sunday.

Why Dead Heat Rules Matter This Week

If you are betting any of the finishing markets this week — top 5, top 10, top 20, top finisher from a country, group winners — dead heat rules will shape your returns far more than the headline price.

Here is why. Ties at the boundaries of finishing markets are routine at majors. Four-way and five-way splits at fifth place — or at tenth — happen most weeks. Picture four players tied for 5th in this week's PGA Championship. Positions 1 to 4 settle cleanly. That leaves one paid Top 5 place to be shared between the four tied players. Dead heat rules divide your stake by the number of players in the tie (four), and multiply by the remaining places at that boundary (one). A £20 bet at 12/1 — advertised at a £260 return — would settle for around £65.

This happens at every major. It will happen at Aronimink. Working out the genuine payout by hand is fiddly, especially when a tournament throws up a five-way tie for tenth and you need to know what you actually walk away with before the final putt drops.

Run the Numbers With the BetCalc Dead Heat Calculator

The BetCalc Golf Dead Heat Calculator is built exactly for this. Plug in your stake, your odds, the number of players involved in the tie and the number of remaining places in the market — the tool returns your adjusted payout in seconds, with side-by-side comparisons across the bookmakers whose dead heat rules vary more than punters tend to realise.

Use it before placing your top 5, top 10, top 20 and group betting bets this week. Use it again before settling on a bookmaker. There are real returns differences between books on dead heat scenarios that most punters never check, and over a major championship season those differences compound.

Final Word

The first major of the year went to McIlroy. The second one starts Thursday. Scheffler will be playing for history, McIlroy will be playing for an early-year double, and somewhere in the chasing pack — Young, Fitzpatrick, Schauffele, Rahm — a Sunday charge is coming that will quietly turn the finishing markets upside down.

Run your numbers before the first tee shot. The BetCalc Dead Heat Calculator is one click away.